“Brazil will win World Cup,” Predicts Goldman Sachs

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“Brazil will win World Cup,” Predicts Goldman Sachs

The FIFA World cup games commenced in earnest on 14th June, 2018 with Russia opening the beautiful game with Saudi Arabia.

The matches are scheduled to last from June 14 to July 15. This year’s host is Moscow, Russia.

The beautiful game of soccer is hard to predict but a number of sports analysts have given it a try. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is at the forefront in making the predictions and they believe Brazil will win the FIFA World cup hence this will the country’s sixth cup. The process of making the prediction combined use of econometrics, data mining and machine learning.

The investment bank is among several others who have made predictions so far. The bank reports that it utilized 20,000 statistical models and worked on data on each individual player as well as recent team performance and ended up with 1 million simulations to arrive at their conclusions.

In their models, Brazil and Germany are appearing most of the time in the forecast. Goldman Sachs is not alone in choosing Brazil as a potential winner of World cup 2018, Danske Bank also arrived at the same conclusion.

On the other hand, Commerzbank had a different opinion, for them they see Germany as the likely winner. On this issue Goldman Sachs Inc says that France has a better chance of winning than Germany.

In their statistical model, France will meet Brazil in the semi-finals and that is where France’s march forward will meet its Waterloo. A study conducted by University of Innsbruck predicts that Germany and Brazil will meet in the semi-finals.
It is interesting to note that Danske used Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita as an additional variable in the model used to predict who will win the beautiful game.

Finally, Goldman Sachs does not see the host (Russia) making it beyond the group stages. This is the same conclusion reached by Commerz bank bringing us to a conclusion that home advantage does not work anymore.

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Geoffrey Kerosi is a prolific Kenyan writer based in Nairobi City. He holds a Bachelors in Economics and Statistics and is currently pursuing Masters in Public Policy and Administration (MPPA) from Kenyatta University. Email: info@kerosi.com. Whatsapp: +254713 639 776 YouTube: Kerosi TV

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